The End of an Era?
What will happen to the GOP?
Editor's Note: Thomas's commentary is in blue and
Marcie's is in purple.
Prognosticators and speculators
are claiming that conservatism is dead, and it's all the GOP's
fault for squandering the faith the base had in them. We think
that's a tad premature. The lesson meted out by the conservative
base in 2006 was a simple one: Pay attention to your roots. Now
obviously some have learned this lesson. Representative John Boehner,
the House Minority Leader, and Senator Mitch McConnell, the Senate
Minority Leader, have gathered their top people to examine what
might happen this November. While all eyes appear to be tuned
to the presidential election, some are looking at the upcoming
congressional elections, and they aren't looking too happy about
them. And it leaves many leaders in the party asking "what
will happen to us?"
Every two years, every member of the House
of Representatives -- all 435 of them -- is up for reelection.
In 2006 the Democrats ran on a conservative platform, and trounced
the Republicans. In short, the Democrats ran a better game than
we did. This was due, in no small part, to the fiscal irresponsibility
of the GOP in the House. They spent like "drunken sailors,"
as Senator John McCain once remarked. They lost their roots, and
they paid a hefty price for it. But, as the old adage goes, "be
careful what you wish for." The public wanted a change, and
it got one. The problem is their change was not exactly sensible.
They put a radical woman in charge of the House who made several
promises, and to date has delivered on two only -- a minimum wage
increase, and an ethic reform bill that is anything but reform
and transparency. The latter was a serious point that Democrats
made in the elections of 2006. The Democrats, it seems, were no
better than the Republicans.
The bright spot is in the Senate, where
the split between parties is 51 to 49, with the Democrats holding
power. Because the margins are so close, Senator McConnell has
been able to keep Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in check,
and on a short leash. A recent climate change bill (Lieberman-Warner)
is the proof in the pudding. Both Senator McConnell and Senator
Reid agreed that several judges were due their up-or-down vote.
Reid agreed to give them those votes, then reneged on the promise.
In retaliation, when the Boxer amendment to Lieberman-Warner came
up for a vote, Senator McConnell tied Senator Reid's hands by
forcing a full reading of the almost five hundred page piece of
legislation on the floor of the Senate. Senator Reid was fit to
be tied. Republicans in the Senate are holding the line better
than their House colleagues, but they face gloomy, seemingly insurmountable
odds this election. The Republicans have 23 seats up for grabs
whereas the Democrats have only twelve. Pundits are saying that
the GOP is in for a shellacking this November, and Senator Chuck
Schumer is urging supporters to give the Democrats a total of
57 seats.
For some odd reason, the Republicans always
perform better when their backs are against the wall. While prognosticators
like Michael Barone say we will lose a few seats, the losses will
not be as great as so many claim. Liberals are giddy with the
conception that we will lose so badly that it will likely take
our side decades to even get close again. What these people forget
is that right now Congress has the lowest approval numbers of
its existence, hovering around 20%. That would be lower than the
President's approval numbers. They also miss the fact that, while
the Democrats are putting their best face out there, those same
leaders are concerned the voters may take frustrations out on
them. This is especially true with "fresh" incumbents;
those that are not entrenched like Speaker Pelosi, Senator Biden,
Senator Kerry, or Senator Rockefeller. The "Blue Dog"
Democrats are also among those that are concerned. They have seen
how far to the Left both Speaker Pelosi and Senator Reid have
gone, and they are hearing it from their constituents.
The Republicans, we believe, have a better
chance of not only holding the numbers close, but they have a
good chance to flip a seat or two in their favor. While there
have been a couple instances of the Republicans sliding back to
the ways that cost them their majorities, such as the Farm Bill,
they have done their best to hold the line against the Democrats.
And here is the recipe for them. Go back and promote conservatism,
and this time be serious about it. Don't give the voters lip service.
That's not going to get us back into the good graces of the nation,
nor will it help get us back into the majority. We need to campaign
on a reduction of spending, on lowering taxes, on TRUE ethics
reform, and on energy independence as a national security issue.
In 1994, Newt Gingrich led a revolution in the House by running
the Contract With America. A new one is needed, or, at least a
return to the original one to send a message to the voters that
says "Okay, we gotcha. We got the hint. We had to get run
over by a clue bus to get this, but we got it." The Democrats
have catered to the fever swamp of their base, so it's natural
they'll go along with the hard-Left leaders in their party. But
the Republicans have to win back the faith their base once had.
This election year will not be doom and
gloom for the Republicans provided they make the necessary changes
to make their gains. Part of the changes necessary are to find
solid conservative candidates to challenge the incumbents that
we can longer count on. We predict that they will likely gain
ten to twelve seats in the House. On the Senate side, we are predicting,
at most, a loss of possibly four seats, which still keeps us in
the position of being able to maintain a filibuster. The Senate
is the key elections to keep an eye on. Filibusters cannot be
mounted in the House, but they can be in the Senate, and the Senate
handles all appointments. The Senate will also be the battleground
for all legislation coming through the Congress. As long as we
can maintain close numbers to the Democrats then the future is
not as bleak as many believe. Could we face a drubbing in November?
A distinct possibility, but not one that adds up as we see the
race right now.
He is a scholar of history, especially American
history, and the United States Constitution. She has finished
her undergrad studies, graduating with a BA in English and history
and will move onto law school this fall where she will specialize
in Constitutional Law. Together, Thomas and Marcie form the vanguard
of conservative opinion at Hamilton,
Madison, and Jay -- a blogging site devoted to advancing the
conservative cause by challenging the liberal lies and deceit
spread by the media, and espoused by the Left in general. Both
are expert debaters, and have beaten many liberals into submission
with their collective wit, and unmatched knowledge. The pair is
married, and resides in Arizona
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