The Also-Rans

Do they have the keys to the White House?

Editor's Note: Thomas's commentary is in blue and Marcie's is in purple.

We’ve discussed Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, and John McCain. We’ve analyzed them every which way we could. These men are the frontrunners (minus John McCain) for a number of reasons. They have the keys to win in 2008. Patrick Ruffini wrote a column in early March discussing these keys, but he only applied them to the main frontrunners from both parties. (For the record, as he acknowledges in the piece, he is a Rudy man, and he's a respected political consultant.) We’d be remiss in not touching on the also-rans of the GOP after having addressed the guys leading the pack. So, taking a cue from Mr. Ruffini, this is our answer to those asking about the rest of the GOP field.

Executive Experience

This applies to former governors, and even mayors. Those that have served in Congress are rarely considered having any sort of executive experience. For the most part people from Congress tend to negotiate and capitulate. When we discuss the also-rans, there are three people who have the experience we are looking for. So we award a point to Jim Gilmore (former Governor of Virginia), Mike Huckabee (former Governor of Arkansas), and Tommy Thompson (former Governor of Wisconsin). We also recognize Tommy Thompson for serving on President Bush’s Cabinet, but still, his role as governor is what gives him his point.

The other four contenders – Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter, Ron Paul, Tom Tancredo – all hail from Congress. These guys have spent their careers wheeling and dealing in Congress, and when we’re choosing a President, we want someone who will have the courage of their convictions. We don’t look for people to negotiate at the drop of a hat because it’s easier. Being President isn’t an easy job, and especially in the present world we live in, we need a leader, not a capitulator.

Warmth

As Mr. Ruffini notes, “warm beats cold.” This is a hard rule in politics. Bush beat Gore and Kerry, Reagan beat Carter and Mondale, Bush beat Dukakis, etc. Call this the likeability factor in politics. The more approachable a candidate is, the better the chances are that they can win. This time we have only two people: Sam Brownback and Mike Huckabee. They earn the points because they do not present a façade that they are cold at all. The others seemingly do. As a matter of fact, the others seem a bit like dead fish, overall.

She’s not kidding. All the rest seem intense, and even a bit hostile. Ron Paul, out of all the candidates, seems to be talking down to people when he addresses others. He acts as if he knows it all. There is a difference in having confidence in oneself and being condescending. He clearly appears to have that sort of an attitude. Hunter and Tancredo join him in this category.

Authenticity

Also referred to as the believability factor, it is the newest point in American politics. With the current attitude the electorate has – that politicians are inherently liars, and fairly untrustworthy – this point is king among the other factors. Who is the one you can trust. Five people get a point in this category: Jim Gilmore, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Ron Paul, and Tom Tancredo. Each one can be perceived to be perfectly honest with the electorate.

That’s not to say the others are liars. Sam Brownback didn’t win any friends when he switched his vote during the recent cloture vote on the Senate’s immigration boondoggle bill. Tommy Thompson lacks this because of his participation in the President’s Cabinet, and far too many voters believe the President hasn’t exactly been up front with the American public.

Electability

Some will scratch their heads with this one because it seems so circular in it’s reasoning. You can only be elected if it is perceived you are electable. Virtually all of the also-rans sit on even footing here except two: Mike Huckabee and Duncan Hunter. Both have a tremendous following not only in the online community, but also in the real world. A great many people we speak with consistently bring up both men if we ask them to remove the front-runners from the equation. (Sorry to all the Ron Paul nuts out there, but most people we speak with do not even know who the heck he is.)

Now I know this will be contentious for the sheer fact that we all have our favorites, but the simple fact of the matter is that both men project strength. The others don’t. They seem to almost have the “go along, get along” mentality to the campaign. It was more than clear in the most recent debate when the others all refused to “pardon Libby” when the question came up, until Rudy stood his ground. Some changed their tune very quickly.

Sell-by Date

This is an amusing title, but makes very good sense. The “14 year rule,” as Mr. Ruffini refers to it is literally a politician’s sell-by date. Fourteen years from the first time they were elected up to the present – that is what this means. Only three men get the nod this time around: Sam Brownback (first elected in 1996), Jim Gilmore (first elected in 1997), and Mike Huckabee (first elected in 1993). It should be noted that this one rule is almost never wrong.

The rest of the crew was elected back in the late Seventies and the Eighties. They’re done with their chances. Ron Paul actually tried running for President in 1988 as a Libertarian, taking less than 1% of the vote itself. People don’t look too favorably on politicians that have been around the block more times than a sailor on leave.

Bonus Points

Incumbency is key to this factor. Who has won, continues to win, and has the best chance to win again. The problem is that only one of these men has never won reelection – Jim Gilmore. He was unable to run for a consecutive term as Governor of Virginia because of the state’s election laws concerning the governorship. All the rest have been reelected repeatedly. (Sam Brownback and Mike Huckabee have the least at two terms.)

There are other factors for the presidency, but none of them factor into the equation as much as these do. Name recognition is one of them, but only a couple amongst the also-rans could claim that. (After the immigration debate alone, Ron Paul, Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo, and Sam Browback received a bump because they were the most outspoken ones on it; Brownback has his notoriety for switching his vote during the cloture move.) But we have seen in the past that veritable no-names can achieve the nomination. Winning is something entirely different, and it requires the points we’ve discussed. Without them, candidates are just stuffed suits with no chance. We’re not saying that one of these guys couldn’t come up out of the pack, but their chances are slim. The frontrunners are in the catbird seat for a reason, and unless they stumble badly in the run-up to the primaries, the GOP field is a lock already. These guys are simply along for the ride.

He is a scholar of history, especially American history, and the United States Constitution. She has finished her undergrad studies, graduating with a BA in English and history and will move onto law school this fall where she will specialize in Constitutional Law. Together, Thomas and Marcie form the vanguard of conservative opinion at Hamilton, Madison, and Jay -- a blogging site devoted to advancing the conservative cause by challenging the liberal lies and deceit spread by the media, and espoused by the Left in general. Both are expert debaters, and have beaten many liberals into submission with their collective wit, and unmatched knowledge. The pair is married, and resides in Arizona

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