A Cause for Concern

The new Axis of Evil

Editor's Note: Thomas's commentary is in blue and Marcie's is in purple.

It is not exactly "new" per se, but it is in the respect that it now appears that Syria and North Korea may be making deals for nuclear materials and technology. Israel seemed to believe this based on intelligence they had gathered. On or about September 7th, Israel launched a strike on Syria on a target they believed was a site that was storing nuclear components. Now we know that tensions in the region are on the rise with the suspicion that Iran is working towards a nuclear weapon. But this throws a whole new twist into the mix. It was suspected that Syria had brokered a deal with North Korea -- a nation they have bought arms and materials from in the past -- to obtain some nuclear technology and materials.

While it is only speculation, the Israeli's are standing beside their assessments. They had purposefully redirected their Ofek-7 satellite from watching Iran to watching Syria once they obtained information about North Korean shipments heading to Syria. The Syrians and North Koreans maintain it was a load of cement (yeah right, as if Syria can't make cement themselves) heading to an agricultural facility in northeastern Syria. Israel had sent an IDF commando team into Syria to locate the bunkers/ When they were located, they used laser spotters to paint the target just shortly before the IDF planes swept in and annihilated the site. Since the strike occurred, Israel has remained silent. Syria claims that they did engage IDF fighters, and North Korea condemned the attack. Curious that they would speak up on such a thing, is it not? They rarely spout off on international relations or events, and it's telling that they would sound off on this.

Based on a deal brokered by the United States, North Korea has agreed to end all nuclear weapon production in exchange for financial and humanitarian aid. But Kim Jong-Il is strapped for money. His nation sits on the brink of economic collapse, and his people -- especially his military -- is starving. the last time such an event occurred, Kim Jong-Il was facing a coup from his military. We believe, based on the information we have compiled, that Syria is once again acting as a proxy on behalf of Iran; the veritable middle-man in a deal that would have netted them the nuclear technology and components that Iran needs to finish work on a suspected nuclear weapon. We must stress that at this point, there is nothing to substantiate this hypothesis as neither Israel nor the United States are confirming, or denying the existence of a clearing-house site of sorts in northern Syria for nuclear technology.

What we do know is that Iran wants a nuclear weapon very badly. They are doing everything they can to slow up IAEA inspections and possible detection of their program which is housed in many underground bunkers that are still off limits to IAEA inspectors. We also know that Iran knows it's under a microscope right now. They know they're being watched, and not just by us, but by a host of other nations, Israel included. North Korean ships docking at their ports would raise all sorts of red flags, and would likely garner them a more stringent set of sanctions against them in the United Nations Security Council. (Iran is facing the possibility of harsher sanctions right now by not being entirely forthcoming with their nuclear program, and the fact that they haven't suspended their enrichment program.) So what better way to obtain what you need than to use a proxy, which we believe Iran is doing. See, the experts claim that there is "no possible way" that Syria could afford such materials. But they're overlooking the obvious. Iran can. As one of the regions largest oil producing/exporting nations, Iran has the money to obtain technology that would allow them to leap forward in nuclear weapon research. (As of 14 September, oil prices were at $80.36 a barrel, and Iran has been producing 2.5 million barrels a day of oil. Do the math, and that's over $200 million a day they reap.)

Furthermore, it is not as if North Korea does not have nuclear weapons already, and those would fetch a tidy little sum in a black market, back-room deal for Kim Jong-Il. The way we see it is that Iran would send the money to Syria -- the only other nation in their global strategic alliance -- that has trade relations with North Korea. Only this time the Syrians are not interested in Scud-C missiles. Their interest is in the technology that must be dismantled and ended as per the new non-proliferation agreement with North Korea. But their interest is not of their own accord. It is in their master's interest to move forward. So, Iran sends the money to Syria for the technology, and Syria then sends said technology -- possibly even a working nuclear warhead -- back to Tehran.

We know this sounds like some far-reaching conspiracy theory, but in this day and age we can't be too careful with regimes like these three. Iran is already carrying on a proxy war against the United States in Iraq. They have allowed only minimal access to their nuclear facilities by IAEA inspectors. Monthly President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad professes that Israel must be destroyed or will be destroyed. With the inclusion of North Korea into the region, there is only one thing the regional nations want from the Asian nation -- nuclear technology, and possibly nuclear weapons. That is a prospect that neither the United States or Israel can afford to allow. Many experts breathed a sigh of relief when AQ Kahn -- the father of the Pakistani nuclear bomb -- had his network for nuclear proliferation broken up. They all thought the potential nightmare was over, and that it would take Iran almost a decade to reach their goal of constructing and deploying a nuclear weapon.

But many analysts have admitted that Mr. Kahn's "little black book" of contacts was sold; distributed to his many contacts so they could continue the work he started. We know that many nations had started speaking with others in the network in an effort to build up their own nuclear programs, but the experts overlooked the simple fact that those with the money would be able to buy what they needed. Kim Jong-Il is not a stupid man. He knows he must have a few nuclear weapons on hand for IAEA inspectors to dismantle and destroy. But nothing is preventing him from dumping some of their more intrinsic and vital information off to others. Nor is there anything preventing him from passing a warhead or two off to Syria, and then watching as it makes it's way to Tehran. By the time it would likely be discovered, the damage would be virtually done. Either North Korean technicians could help them construct the weapons, or the scientists in Tehran could reverse engineer the warheads. Either way, Tehran would have what they desire.

North Korean technicians have been spotted in Syria, and could make a simple jump over the border to help Iranian techs build their much desired bomb. And while the Israelis seemed to have ended the potential threat now, it will take stalwart surveillance to ensure that this nightmare scenario does not come to pass. We can't allow nations like North Korea to peddle their weapons to rogue regimes like Iran, via Syria. Instead of condemning Israel for this raid, the world should be breathing a sigh of relief that someone did something to stop this potential transaction. If Iran gains the ability to make nuclear weapons, they won't announce their success until they have a formidable arsenal. President Ahmadinejad isn't going to play chicken with just one nuke. But he will be happy to remove Israel from the face of the map with a couple of them, and he won't waste time before he begins blackmailing the region, and possibly the world, with the ones he has left in his arsenal. In no way can Iran be allowed to get nuclear weapons. If they do, the 21st Century world we know will become increasingly dangerous, and much more precarious than any expert dreamed possible.

He is a scholar of history, especially American history, and the United States Constitution. She has finished her undergrad studies, graduating with a BA in English and history and will move onto law school this fall where she will specialize in Constitutional Law. Together, Thomas and Marcie form the vanguard of conservative opinion at Hamilton, Madison, and Jay -- a blogging site devoted to advancing the conservative cause by challenging the liberal lies and deceit spread by the media, and espoused by the Left in general. Both are expert debaters, and have beaten many liberals into submission with their collective wit, and unmatched knowledge. The pair is married, and resides in Arizona

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