As The Field Narrows, So Does The Focus

Officially a two-man race

Editor's Note: Thomas's commentary is in blue and Marcie's is in purple.

Yes, it is true. The GOP field of contenders is slowly whittling itself down. Jim Gilmore departed after realizing that one million dollars was not enough to run for president. Tommy Thompson left after he stumbled in the Iowa Ames Straw Poll. Senator Sam "Switchback" Brownback decided he had had enough of the campaign trail with little monetary help, and even less support; support that dwindled after his vote reversal on immigration reform. So as the field has narrowed slightly, many will ask how we can determine that this is a two-man race. With so many options still on the table, critics contend, we cannot merely toss other candidates to the side. Au contraire, we can. We may be wrong, given that there is still eighty-one days until Super Duper Tuesday, but barring a serious gaffe the race will come down to Rudy Giuliani or Mitt Romney being the GOP nominee for 2008.

Exhibit A -- Fred Thompson

Count us among those that were ecstatic to hear him announce he was running. After months of anticipation and suspense the former Tennessee senator finally made it official, and just in time to slip into the 9 October GOP debate in Dearborn, Michigan. The problem that surfaced for him showed itself early in that debate. Where was the spark? Where was the enthusiasm we were expecting? Granted, Marcie and I gave him a pass for that first debate given the fact that he hadn't participated in a debate like that before. (We can all Monday-morning quarterback the debates, but unless you're up there and fielding the questions, you have no clue what it's like.) The second debate on 21 October was considerably better, with him taking swipes at both Romney and Giuliani, but again the energy and emotion seemed a tad flat. And looking at the polls in the early primary states, he isn't faring badly, but he also isn't leading any. Of the six states slated to have their primaries in January, he has no first-place leads yet, and four second-place nods. Not good for a guy wanting to be President, especially given the intense interest he garnered amongst the GOP base.

Exhibit B -- Mike Huckabee

We like Governor Huckabee. We really do. He is an affable man, with a strong pro-life record. He succeeded in making himself better by losing weight and maintaining a healthier lifestyle. If that was all there is to presidential politics, he would be a shoo-in. However that is not what being president is all about, and given his record as governor, we could not willfully support the man. Yes he is gaining traction in some states -- Iowa most notably -- and his coffers are filling with donations. But barring a serious uptick in support, Governor Huckabee will not take the nomination. Given the fact that he has said some things that do not jive with us (the call for a nationwide smoking ban among those proposals), and they make us question his conservatism. You do not balance the budget on the backs of the taxpayers, and you most certainly do not advocate for more government intrusion. Governor Huckabee has endorsed both. He leads in no primary states right now, and at best manages a third-place spot in Iowa. When February 5th is over, we expect to hear the announcement of his departure from the race.

Exhibit C -- Ron Paul

Before I go forward on this one, I'd like to tell all the Paul-bots out there to save your fingers. Don't bother e-mailing complaints to us. His supporters refuse to listen to what is being argued. They don't pay any attention to anyone who opposes Paul on logical, common-sense grounds. So, for those people, just save it. As of right now Ron Paul is polling in one state only. That would be New Hampshire, and he has a measly 3.8% in the primary polls. He has quite a few supporters, but these people refuse to listen to anything sensible from the base. He has advocated an isolationist point-of-view for America, which simply can't be carried out. He has called for the dissolution of the NEA and the IRS, which are good ideas. However, he has also stated he would kill the CIA, the FBI, and the NSA, which are bad ideas, especially given the war we're in, and the necessity for intelligence against our enemy. Additionally, he recently stated that he wouldn't worry about Iran gaining nuclear weapons; a point, no doubt, that goes to his isolationist views, and doesn't sit well with the electorate. This is what is killing his campaign with a vast majority of voters in the GOP base. While many will agree that he has some worthwhile ideas, most agree that he simply goes too far with his rhetoric and beliefs. If he were smart he'd run as a Libertarian -- a party he more closely identifies with -- and be honest with the voters instead of making them believe he is a Republican.

Exhibit D -- John McCain

We never thought we would see a resurgence of this man, but it is happening. Iowa is the only primary state where Senator McCain is out of the running right now, but things could still change for him. He finishes in the top four in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, Nevada, and Michigan. Voters say they prefer a feistier version of him, such as the one we saw in 2000, but his message with regard to the war is what has many potential voters giving him a second look. We have stated that whoever the nominee is -- yes, even if it is miraculously Ron Paul -- we will support them. Given our own distaste for John McCain, that is an abrupt turnaround for us. We do not like him or his many political stances., We do not like the way he always feels the need to "reach across the aisle." However he is one of the strongest candidates on the number one issue this election is going to revolve around, and that is what we need in this election. The only candidate to call for a withdrawal of troops is Ron Paul. The majority of remaining candidates have gone in the opposite direction, including Senator McCain. He says he will stay on the offensive, and troops will not be withdrawn until their job is done. Despite this strong stance he still lacks the necessary funds and support to win the nomination.

So this leaves us with Rudy and Mitt. Both men have the funds and both men have the support. Mitt Romney leads in the Iowa, New Hampshire, and Michigan primary polls. Rudy leads in South Carolina, Florida, and Nevada. Early polls for both California and New Jersey -- two states going on 5 February -- show Rudy with commanding leads; eighteen points over second-place McCain in California, and forty-two points over McCain in New Jersey, where he is also in second-place. Both men are blowing the competition away and while Rudy has been taking stabs at the Democrat nominees, especially Senator Clinton, Mitt Romney has just started to drill her on her credentials to lead this nation. As far as we've seen in both men's ads in the primary states, they are tearing the Democrats apart on everything from the war, to taxes, to domestic and foreign policy. The others muster little in the way of taking an offensive to the Democrats (save Fred, but he's been a liberal slayer for some time), while both of these men act and sound like they're already running against the other party. We have always been the party of ideas, and both men have plenty. In the end the race comes down to who can beat the Democrats, and serve as a forceful, competent commander-in-chief. Both Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney have shown they can handle the big chair, if they win it. The others have served as foils for them, and at times the comic relief. What the others haven't shown is the leadership necessary to run this nation. And from what we've seen, the voters seem to agree that this is literally a two man race right now.

He is a scholar of history, especially American history, and the United States Constitution. She has finished her undergrad studies, graduating with a BA in English and history and will move onto law school this fall where she will specialize in Constitutional Law. Together, Thomas and Marcie form the vanguard of conservative opinion at Hamilton, Madison, and Jay -- a blogging site devoted to advancing the conservative cause by challenging the liberal lies and deceit spread by the media, and espoused by the Left in general. Both are expert debaters, and have beaten many liberals into submission with their collective wit, and unmatched knowledge. The pair is married, and resides in Arizona

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