"The Citizen Politician"

The GOP Convention Could Seal Kerry’s Fate

When opportunity knocks, answer the door

by Vincent Fiore
09/01/04

President George W. Bush and the Republican Party have been given a golden opportunity to possibly clinch the sale of a second Bush term.

The Democratic convention was a success as far as party continuity and thematic appeal, as those who watched would tell you. However, the numbers do not lie. As suspect and misleading as the polls can be, it has always been a near-absolute that after a convention, the candidate can expect a modest if not superlative bounce in his poll numbers.

Since George McGovern’s Presidential run in 1972, no candidate has come out of his convention without a polling bounce of some sort, much less a negative one.

With the Democratic convention now a footnote in history, President Bush comes into his own convention knowing that Massachusetts Senator and Democratic Presidential nominee John Kerry received little, if any, bounce in the presidential polls.

Today, the race stands as it started before the DNC bash in Boston -- dead even. But the dynamics have now shifted in favor of the Bush camp. With the Democrats back in their box and their convention stars out of the spotlight, Kerry must now wait for the GOP convention in New York. It is here where Bush can inflict heavy damage on Kerry, possibly enough to leave a lasting impression until Election Day.

Bush has a history of rising to the expectations associated with a major speech, and the party faithful will expect as much now. Arguably, this will be the most important speech Bush will give since his noteworthy address to Congress and the world on September 20, nine days after the nation was attacked.

Bush will also be a short cab ride from the hallowed confines of Ground Zero, literally two miles away from Madison Square Garden. This will not be lost upon the watching electorate. With the third anniversary of September 11 mere days away, the GOP will cast an aura of tragic yet heroic remembrance of the victims and their families, and trumpet the leadership of the president who has kept America safe since that awful day.

For Bush, he will go into this convention with the wind at his back. Assuming the polls stay grounded within the margins of error, Bush will have a committed and consolidated Republican base not seen since the Presidency of Ronald Reagan. He will have plenty of cash on hand, pre and post convention. Bush will have a record of accomplishment to run on, something that John Kerry went out of his way not to point to during his own convention.

While Kerry has made much of Democratic Party unity, it is Republicans who have the more committed voters today. Typical Kerry voters cannot give reasons for their allegiance to him, but can readily give voice as to why “anybody but Bush” will do.

Further, Bush will stress to the country his ability to lead. His one-time campaign line that America “has turned a corner and is not turning back” was designed to cast Kerry as a tax-and-spend liberal, fickle on defense and the fight against terrorism, and no desire to advance American leadership around the world.

Bush can point to something the Democratic Party cannot, and that is his accomplishments during his first term. His successful war against terrorism and the rising economic outlook will be his twin towers of strength for his conservative base. For his more moderate supporters, he can point to legislation such as the “No Child Left Behind” Act, and the Medicare/Prescription drug bill. For the social conservatives, Bush can point to the partial-birth abortion bill, and his proposed Constitutional Amendment against gay marriage.

In Boston last week, voters heard John Kerry mouth such banalities as “we can do better” and “I will do more,” but virtually omitting the fine print of just what he plans to actually do.

Expect President Bush to also unveil his plan for a second term at the convention. He will promote Social Security and medical savings accounts and call for his previous tax cuts to be made permanent, part of the “Ownership Society” that Bush has resurrected from his 2000 campaign. In recent days, he has called for troop reductions within the broad theater of Europe—some 170,000 troops and family members. He will call for meaningful tax reform, meaning a serious look at the IRS and ways to eliminate its wasteful bureaucracy. Most importantly, he will stress to the American people that the war against terror will not end regardless who is elected on November 2.

For his part, John Kerry can do little but react. The Swift Boat Veterans for Truth ads and book sales have rattled his campaign. Kerry has not answered the accusations put forth to him by these vets --- any more than he has answered the question about what he would do in Iraq. For Kerry, the object has always been to somehow adopt all possible positions without ever committing to one. In the end, this may well be his undoing.

If Republicans are bold in their ideas come convention time, Kerry will have a hard time doing what he has to date failed to do: capturing the voters’ attention with reasons as to why they should vote for him. With two months left until Election Day, there will be little reason to think Kerry could offer something now. The “anybody but Bush” candidate could have much to worry about on the morning of September 3.